We head west for our MLB Best Bet on Saturday where we find the New York Mets taking on the San Francisco Giants. The Mets exploded last night against this Giants team scoring ten runs in the win. In some cases, this might be a play against situation for a team after having such an out of character offensive output. On the other hand, especially early in the season this can give a team that has started slow at the plate confidence and momentum which carries over to their next game or games. New York will send Clay Holmes to the hill with his 1-0 SU record and his ERA of 3.18 on the young season. In Holmes opener for the 26 campaign, he allowed just four hits striking out five over 5.2 innings of work. Holmes has been one of the Mets’ more reliable arms in their rotation, and he is backed by one of the strongest bullpens in the majors with a 1.93 ERA. The Mets are batting .230 on the season, averaging 4.4 runs per game. San Francisco counters with Landen Roupp, who was dominant in his first start, tossing six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts against the Padres. San Francisco will send Landen Roupp to the bump on Saturday night. Roupp was dominant in his first start, tossing six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts against the Friars. Roupp may have had a very strong start against San Diego, but he struggled in spring training, posting a 4.15 ERA. This Mets team is far more talented than the Giants, and until San Francisco proves they can consistently put together runs we will watch for strong situations to play against them. This happens to be one of those situations as our overall power numbers and matrix projections all point to the Mets as a valuable play on team tonight. New York is batting .257 against right-handed starters while also drawing walks. The Giants have a miserable batting average at home at .196 so far this season. A quick check of each team’s bullpen numbers we see the Mets have an ERA of 1.93 while the Giants bullpen has an ERA of 5.06 over their last six games. The TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.4 runs. Our next set of metrics looks at the overall Starting Pitchers Power Ratings for tonight's contest (we will have these numbers once the starters have made a couple starts). The SPMatrix will also have projections once the starters have a couple starts on the season. Our BHOR Matrix (Bases, Hits, Outs, Runs Matrix) has a projected run advantage of 1.49 in favor of the Mets. The SIM Matrix has the New York Mets with a 73.88 percent advantage against the San Francisco Giants in tonight’s contest. Play ON MLB favorites or small underdogs playing the same team they faced their last time out while facing a starting pitcher who allows 0.56 or more home runs per nine innings pitched and a team whose bullpen allowed four or more runs in their last game, 1853-1463 SU (56%)(+$12,939). We are going to back the better overall team as the Mets hand the Giants a loss on Saturday night. PREDICTION: 8* NEW YORK METS 4 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 3

We have reached the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament, and our top play comes from the Michigan versus Arizona game Saturday night. It is all about matchups and the Wildcats present several problems that the Wolverines have not had to face in the tournament to this point. Michigan has put together one of the most physically impressive frontcourts in college basketball utilizing the transfer portal. Their frontcourt has been the key to their success this season and in this tournament. The Cats have an answer for the Michigan frontcourt and guards. Arizona has their own big man in seven-foot two-inch Motiejus Krivas who is a handful for opposing teams especially on the glass. The Wildcats are ranked fourth in the nation in rebound margin, while the Wolverines are ranked eighth in the nation. Arizona also ranks in the top five in the nation in points in the paint per game, also offensive rebound percentage, and they lead the nation in free throw attempts. This provides the Cats with elite second chance opportunities, continued pressure on the inside, and willing to draw contact to allow them to get to the line on a regular basis. This is exactly what the difference was for the Cats as they dismantled the Boilermakers in the Elite Eight round of the tournament. What could be even more decisive for the Cats is their perimeter play from freshman guard Brayden Burries who averages 16.1 points per game and is Arizona's leading scorer. But the player who has emerged as the Cats most dangerous weapon in recent weeks is 6-foot-7 wing Ivan Kharchenkov, who averaged 17 points per game in the regional rounds last weekend and has the size and athleticism to exploit mismatches against smaller Michigan wings. Looking at the Wolverines’ spread performance we see they lost all seven games in January to the spread and were 1-8 ATS entering their second-round win over Saint Louis. It is obvious the market has overvalued this Wolves team at least during the last few months. Arizona is the caliber of team that will expose that type of overvalue in the market. Arizona has faced an offense in the top 10 adjusted offensive efficiency four times this year, and they’ve won by 15, 21, 21 and 6 pts, with the close game vs. Florida back in November. Arizona trailed at the half against Purdue and came back to win and advance to the Final Four. This season, Arizona has trailed at the half in five other games and then went 5-0 SU in their next game, winning by 18.2 PPG. Arizona has been listed as an underdog three times this season, in Houston back in February, in UConn back in November and against Florida on a neutral court in Las Vegas. Arizona is 3-0 SU/ATS in those games. Our numbers reflect the Cats with the advantage across the board. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 4.62 points in favor of Arizona. The MM projects a point differential of -6.07 against the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 5.8 with a transitional average of 43.3. The SIM Matrix has the Arizona Wildcats with a 74.16 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. Play AGAINST CBB teams when the team had not more than fourteen fouls in their last game and the team had fewer than fifty-eight field goals attempted in their last game, 7-0 ATS. Play AGAINST CBB teams when the opponent’s last game went Under the posted total and when the team had fewer than ten offensive rebounds in their last game, 7-0 ATS. Play ON CBB late season teams when the team’s last opponent had fewer than twenty-eight made field goals, 26-10 ATS (72%)(+$1,500). We will take the point(s) with the Wildcats as they shock the Wolverines and advance to the Championship Game on Monday night. PREDICTION: 9* ARIZONA WILDCATS 77 MICHIGAN WOLVERINES 72