Sunday, September 15, 2024 Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans (NFL) - 8:20 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-110 Houston Texans Rating: 8* Mike's Prime-Time Game Of The Weekend (WIN) +800 Yes, we do have to give Chicago rookie QB Caleb Williams some credit for winning his 1st NFL game since he became the first QB selected in the draft as the#1 pick to notch a "W" since David Carr did it in 2002 ironically with an NFL debut franchise called the Houston Texans. I further feel that "W" by Williams was more like Tennessee giving it away than Chicago earning it. Why? Because Williams wound up completing about 48% of his passes (14 for 29 for 93 yards) & averaged a low 3.2 YPA (55.7 QB rating) on a team that compiled 148 total yards. The Bears' opponent today is much more formidable than what they saw from QB Will Levis & the Tennessee Titans. The Houston QB C.J. Stroud (75% completions, 2/0 TD/INT ratio & 115.9 QB rating) isn't known for giving "W's" away. He has superior skill-position playmakers like WR Nico Collins (117 receiving yards vs. the Colts last week), the newly acquired through a trade with the Bills - WR Stefan Diggs (a better fit in Houston than Buffalo) who had 2 TD's LW & RB Joe Mixon (159 rushing yards/1 TD LW after coming from Cincinnati via a trade). The X-Factor today could also be a guy (not talked about too much) called Tank Dell (2nd year out of Houston U.) who Stroud uses as a wideout as well as a runner when stretching out a defense. My bottom line says that you won't see me bending my "rookie-on-the-road theory too much as we get play against the #1 pick in the draft in his 1st true regular season roadie. HC DeMeco Ryans will have his defense salivating vs. the rookie led by their NFL Defensive Rookie of the Rookie DE Will Anderson, Jr.. DC Matt Burke's swarming 4-3 defensive scheme will have many wrinkles/coverages to confuse the rookie. Besides the superior speed & power of Anderson, the Texans MLB & defensive signal-caller Azeez Shaair (the fresh, unrestricted free agent acquisition from Tennessee has excellent range & cover gaps quickly. Look those 2 to team up with the team's leading tacklers in OLB Henry To'o To'o (2nd year out of Alabama) & CB Derek Stingley (3rd-year out of LSU). Let's travel to Texas' NRG Stadium to play the HOUSTON TEXANS (buying to -1 @ -286) for 8 Stars while also teaming Houston up with the Baltimore Ravens (play them @ -2) in a 2-Teamer @ -143 odds as my Prime-Time Game of the Weekend! Las Vegas Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -9/-105 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Strongest Play on the Board (LOSS) -3465 For this matchup, OC Todd Monken has a BEVY of weapons @ his disposal against lower echelon defensive schemes (dual-threat QB Jackson, RB Henry, TE Likely, WR's Flowers & Bateman) . This is a MUST win for the Ravens who take on Dallas, Buffalo & Cincinnati in the next 3 games. What I see here is Monken getting meaningful blueprints from last week's 2nd half when Chargers' HC Jim Harbaugh (John's brother) charges outscored the Raiders 16-3 erasing a 7-6 halftime deficit. In their loss @ Kansas City, Baltimore still outgained the Chiefs by a 452-353 margin (impressive against a Spagnuolo-coached defense). I feel they'll be LESS turnovers & MORE converted red zone opportunities this afternoon in their own backyard. You don't want to put yourself into 3rd & long's vs. a Spagnuolo "D" that thrives in it. What really stands out for me in this game is those HIDDEN intangibles. ONE, the Ravens had 3 extra days to prepare for this one after opening the season last Thursday. TWO, Las Vegas QB Gardner Minshew JUST came to Inner Harbor last season & upset Baltimore when QB'ing for the Colts. New DC Zach Orr will remind his "D", it's payback time. THREE, the Raiders make their 2nd straight roadie as well as the 3-hour early eastern time zone biological change. Together, these loom LARGE in the overall spectrum of things. Like younger brother Jim (conservative for the 1st half last week), it could be interesting to see how many times Monken unleashes the true playbook on DC Patrick Graham & his defense whose predicated success is determined by their 2 main threats - the penetrations & hurries created by DE Maxx Crosby (the heart n' soul of the franchise) & through DT Christian Wilkins (acquired unrestricted free agent from Miami). They did allow 176 rushing yards last week so they're far from gelling right now. They take on the #1 rushing offense as well as the #1 O-Line protecting the QB from sacks in the NFL! While the score may look ugly if the Raiders don't match scores, there's always the possibility of many ugly FG's this afternoon. Here's where I'm playing it. I'm going to M&T Bank Stadium in Maryland & laying the JUICE on the BALTIMORE RAVENS (buying to -2 @ -385) for 9 Stars as well as a 2-Team Parlay on them with Houston @ -1 @ -143 odds for 8 Stars. Mike Handzelek's 2024-25 NFL Overall Record: 3-2 for 60% -2,765 Net Units Mike's Private Plays Hi-Roller Parlay Record: 1-1 for 50% - 124 Net Units Mike's Overall NFL Net Units -2,889 Net Units