Sunday, November 17, 2024 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - 4:25 EST Premium Pick Buffalo Bills There is no QUESTION that Patrick Mahomes & his Chiefs have somehow bested the Bills & Josh Allen in the playoffs since 2020 3 consecutive times by a 38-24 score 4 seasons ago, a wild 42-36 margin 3 seasons ago @ again 27-24 last season. However, this is the regular season where it is Josh Allen's Bills who are flawless. They've literally flipped the switch the last 3 main streamers (all @ KC) winning 38-20 in 21', 24-20 in 22' & 20-17 last season. Sorry Red & Gold or Swiftys, I've seen this movie too many times before. Why do I think Buffalo does it 4 times in a row. Well, the first reason has to be this game is in Buffalo. second, the Bills are more desperate to steal the 1st round AFC playoffs bye if they win & tie KC @ seasons' end. Third, and most important of all, I feel the absence of Chiefs' RB Isiah "The Cheetah" Pacheco is more than a BIG DEAL when it comes to Andy Reid's playbook execution. A chunk full of plays are centered around him & opponents' pre-snap occupations as well. Clyde Edwards-Hilaire is good but not close to Pacheco's speed & agility. Jon Q. Publis is EAGER to get to the window on KC as they're convinced it's the only way to go. On the other hand, I feel Kansas City was fortunate to get Baltimore @ home early before getting all they could handle from 4-7 SU Cincinnati, a 26-25 nailbiter also @ home. Then they were fortunate to go to San Francisco & face an injured squad & came out on top 28-18. The 49ers currently occupy last place in the NFC West. Last week, they needed a blocked, last-second FG by 5-4 SU Denver to survive again 16-14 to run their record to 9-0. I'm NOT reading too much into that 12-1-1 ATS underdog trend of Mahomes here. Because in the majority of those, his team was close to full strength. My bottom line says I'm just a believer in Josh Allen more whose posted a stellar 9-2 TD/INT ratio versus the Chiefs is too hard to dismiss. In the numbers show Buffalo ranking 2nd to KC's 9th in offensive yards per point. In defensive yards per point, it's the Bills again @ 6th to the Chiefs 9th. In sack yielded percentage, Buffalo chimes in @ 2nd in the NFL while KC's a distant 10th. I feel Buffalo is really clicking now putting up 30 PPG their last 5 games (5-0 SU). Even Mahomes will have trouble matching Allen & his physicality for 4 quarters right now. Let's go to Highmark Stadium (What about Ralph Wilson?) to play the BUFFALO BILLS on the Moneyline @ -165 for 8 Stars as my NFL Public Misperception Play! (WIN) +800 Play #2 - Play a 3-Team Parlay on New Orleans + 7 1/2 with Atlanta + 10 with Miami + 3 @ -137 odds for 5 Stars! (LOSS) -685 Play #3 - Play a 4-Team Parlay on Chicago + 7 1/2 with Miami -2 1/2 with Atlanta + 7 1/2 with the LA Chargers + 7 1/2 @ +227 odds for 4 Stars (LOSS) -400 Play #4 - Play a 4-Team Parlay on San Francisco +4 1/2 with the LA Rams + 7 with New Orleans + 7 with Indianapolis + 17 1/2 @ -109 odds for 7 Stars (WIN) +700 Play #5 - Play a 3-Team/Prop Combo on the LA Chargers + 10 1/2 with the Chargers' J.K. Dobbins Over 39 1/2 Rushing Yards with the Bengals' Tee Higgins Under 84 1/2 Receiving Yards @ -134 odds for 5 Stars (LOSS) -670 Play #6 - Play a straight side on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS buying to +4 1/2 @ -175 odds for 7 Stars (WIN) +700 Play #7 - Play a MNF Parlay on the HOUSTON TEXANS -2 1/2 with UNDER 48 @ -130 odds for 7 Stars (WIN) +700 Mike Handzelek's 2024-25 NFL Overall Record: 40-31 for 56% for 4,087 Net Units