Grade 1 Louisiana Derby | Fair Grounds | Race 12 | March 22


#1 John Hancock (7/2), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Flavien Prat


John Hancock enters the Louisiana Derby with a perfect record of two wins in his career, both at Tampa Bay Downs. This promising colt, sired by Constitution, recently won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (listed) by setting the pace throughout the race and fending off challengers to secure victory by a half-length. With career earnings of $138,560 and 20 Kentucky Derby qualifying points already secured, he has the highest Equibase speed rating in the field at 97. Trained by Brad Cox, who has an impressive 32% win rate in the past 30 days, and ridden by your 2024 Eclipse award-winning jockey Flavien Prat, who has a 25% win rate in dirt routes, John Hancock has connections that inspire confidence. Prat has won this race for the past two years, including teaming up with trainer Cox last year with Catching Freedom.


#2 Chunk of Gold (8/1), trained by Ethan West & ridden by Jareth Loveberry


This gray son of Preservationist has a solid record, with one win and two second-place finishes from three starts as he heads into the Louisiana Derby. Most recently, Chunk of Gold finished second in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on February 15th at Fair Grounds. He finished 9 ¾ lengths behind the winner, Magnitude, and had odds of 43/1. With earnings of $148,818 and 25 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, he is already in a strong position on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. His running style relies on a fast pace at the front, but his powerful late kick and impressive recent workouts suggest he is training effectively for this race. Chunk of Gold's proven ability to perform well on the Fair Grounds' surface provides him a slight edge over his competitors. Trainer West should be respected, as he wins 29% of the time and finishes in the top three 71% of the time in all Stakes races. His return on investment (ROI) is an impressive +150%, showing that he frequently succeeds at cashing in on long shots.


#3 Tiztastic (8/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Joel Rosario


Tiztastic, the more accomplished of Steve Asmussen's two entrants, brings substantial experience to the Louisiana Derby with two wins, one second-place finish, and two third-place finishes from seven career starts. This colt by Tiz the Law has earned an impressive $949,800, achieving consistent speed figures of 94 and 97 in the Rebel (Grade 2) and Southwest Stakes (Grade 3), respectively, in his last two races. Asmussen, a four-time Louisiana Derby-winning trainer, knows what it takes to succeed in this race. One of the major worries for Tiztastic is his performance on dirt tracks. He hasn't won on this surface, managing just one second-place finish and two third-place finishes. His two victories have come on turf, so this race will be particularly challenging for him as it also marks his first appearance at Fair Grounds.


#4 Yinzer (12/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Ben Curtis


This 3-year-old colt by Twirling Candy is likely to have higher odds than 12/1 on the morning line. His sire is known for producing horses with exceptional turf abilities rather than dirt prowess. Asmussen's second entrant, Yinzer, faces a significant class test, having achieved only one win and one third-place finish in four career starts. Additionally, he has the slowest speed rating and late-pace figure in the field. Yinzer broke his maiden at Fair Grounds, winning gate-to-wire over 1 1/16 miles with an Equibase speed figure of 89 on February 15th. Before that victory, he lost his previous three maiden races and will now compete without Lasix after his first win. I prefer others.


#5 Caldera (5/1), trained by D. Wayne Lukas & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione


Caldera has one win and two second-place finishes from four career starts, with total earnings of $174,616. He earned a 100 Equibase speed figure in the Grade 3 Sun Derby, which ranks among the best in the field and highlights his class level. Caldera finished just a nose behind Getaway Car in that race, who recently placed fourth in the Virginia Derby. Caldera has shown improving speed figures in his first four races and looks poised to be a strong contender in this upcoming race. The son of Liam's Map possesses the field's third-fastest late-pace speed figure. Owned by MyRacehorse, who purchased the horse for $500,000 at the 2024 two-year training sale, this colt is expected to attract significant betting action by post time.


#6 Built (4/1), trained by Wayne Catalano & ridden by Jose Ortiz


Built has a consistent record of two wins, one second place, and two-thirds from five starts. His earnings of $224,204 rank second and his top-five class and speed ratings in this field make him a legitimate win contender. This three-year-old colt by Hard Spun has finished in the money in all three of his career starts at Fair Grounds. He won the Gun Runner Stakes (listed) three starts ago and finished second by a neck in the Grade 3 Lecomte on a sloppy surface. He also placed third in the Grade 2 Risen Star on February 15th, though he was beaten by 9 ¾ lengths. Trainer Catalano will go with first-time blinkers, and he has never won a race (0-for-13) or finished in the money when adding this equipment. It's a small sample size but something to consider. I like this horse quite a bit.


#7 Vassimo (12/1), trained by Todd Pletcher & ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.


Vassimo will compete in the Louisiana Derby following a courageous fourth-place finish in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes. The son of the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist had a rough trip, losing 11 lengths, but rallied to finish fourth in a competitive field. He previously won two races but had one victory disqualified due to a medication violation. Vassimo's Equibase speed figures have been solid (86 in the Risen Star, 90 in AOC, 81 in MSW). With a cleaner trip and a more contested pace up front, he has the potential to make a significant impact at attractive odds. Concerns about his limited graded stakes experience and lack of foundation remain, but Pletcher's history of success in this race (five wins) indicates Vassimo shouldn't be underestimated. Another trainer is making a change in equipment. Pletcher achieves a 14% win rate with first-time blinkers and finishes in the top three 44% of the time. I think Vassimo is a live long shot without any standouts in this race.


#8 Furio (12/1), trained by Joe Sharp & ridden by Luis Saez


Locally-based Furio will make his stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby after showing promise in Allowance company as a dedicated front-runner. He finished third in his debut at Churchill Downs before breaking his maiden impressively at Fair Grounds on January 20th with a 91 Equibase speed figure. In a February 17th Allowance race, Furio set the pace but was caught in the stretch by Instant Replay, who is also in the Louisiana Derby. The main challenge for Furio is the significant class jump into stakes company, especially with other pace elements that could create a contested early tempo. His low-speed figures are disturbing, and his previous loss to Instant Replay shows that Furio needs to enhance his performance to compete with the top contenders. Racing for the third time in under three months raises concerns about his stamina.


#9 Instant Replay (6/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Florent Geroux


Brad Cox's second entrant, Instant Replay, has a solid record of two wins and one second from five starts, with career earnings of $96,358. His recent victory in an Allowance Optional Claiming race at Fair Grounds produced a career-best 100 Equibase speed figure, likely aided by his first-time use of Lasix. Instant Replay won his first race by 8 ¾ lengths at Churchill Downs last November without medication, which is a good sign. Florent Geroux has been aboard in all five races. Instant Replay's pressing style allows tactical flexibility; recent impressive workouts indicate he's in top form. The outside post position will help Geroux assess the pace and find a comfortable stalking trip. Instant Replay boasts the fastest late-pace (107.5) speed figure in the field, and his sire, Maximum Security, has produced 10 wins from 50 (20%) races so far. Trainer Brad Cox has been on fire, with 32% winners and 70% in the money rate in the last 30 days.


#10 Hypnus (10/1), trained by Kenny McPeak & ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr.


The wild card horse. This lightly raced colt by Into Mischief has only two career starts. He won his maiden race impressively on a sloppy track in January at Fair Grounds before finishing seventh in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, where he encountered significant traffic trouble. Despite his limited experience, Hypnus has shown talent with Equibase speed figures of 92 in his maiden victory and 93 in the Rebel, although he finished well behind the winner, Coal Battle. His sustained closing style could be advantageous if there’s a pace collapse. However, his wide post position means he must overcome the additional early ground loss. Brian Hernandez Jr. has a 20% win rate in dirt routes over a considerable sample size. The post is slightly concerning, but Hypnus should be rolling late and could hit the board.


Jeff’s Selections


#6 Built (4/1) Win & Place


#7 Vassimo (12/1) Place & Show


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