Grade 1 Florida Derby | Gulfstream Park | Race 14 | March 29


#1 - Neoequos (10/1), trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. & ridden by Edgard Zayas


This 3-year-old colt by Neolithic has demonstrated remarkable consistency with five in-the-money finishes (two wins, two seconds, one-third) from six career starts. Neoequos is a bargain purchase for just $22,000 at the OBS Yearling sale in 2023. His most recent effort was a respectable third-place finish behind Sovereignty in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 1, where he set the pace before fading late in his first attempt on two turns. He should be on or near the lead from the inside post. Neoequos has been first or second at the first call in five of his six races at Gulfstream Park. His first career race doesn't count, as the horse lost the rider after the gate opened. Neoequos is one of three horses in this race that will run two routes in 28 days. A recent sharp five-furlong workout in 58.4 seconds suggests readiness, but the question remains whether he can sustain his speed over the 1 1/8-mile distance that he's yet to tackle.


#2 - Cool Intentions (20/1), trained by Jorge Delgado & ridden by Javier Castellano


A 3-year-old by 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, Cool Intentions ended his juvenile campaign with back-to-back victories at Gulfstream Park but disappointed in his 3-year-old debut when finishing fifth in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes (listed) 8 1/4 lengths behind the winner, Guns Loaded. His class rating of 83 (9 out of 10) and speed rating of 78 (7 out of 10) are significantly lower than the rest of the field. The distance is a major concern so that I will look elsewhere.


#3 - Smoken Boy (30/1), trained by Cheryl Winebaugh & ridden by Edgar Perez


Two starts back, Smoken Boy was eighth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (listed) 9 1/2 lengths behind the winner, John Hancock. He finished sixth place in his most recent race, an Optional Claiming event at Gulfstream Park on February 27. His recent $62,500 claim hasn't replicated his Puerto Rican success in two starts in Florida. He ranks dead last in speed and class ratings in this field. His connections have limited success at the current Gulfstream meet, with trainer Cheryl Winebaugh winning at just a 3% clip and jockey Edgar Perez at 6%. It's hard to make a case for this horse to finish in the top 3.


#4 - Disruptor (4/1), trained by Todd Pletcher & ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.


The son of Gun Runner was sold for $1.15 million at the 2023 Keeneland September sale. Despite having only two career starts, Disruptor enters the Florida Derby as one of the most compelling contenders. He set the pace during his career debut on January 25 at Gulfstream Park but faded toward the end of the race to finish fourth. Five weeks later, he returned to dominate a maiden special weight race, winning by 9¼ lengths with an impressive Equibase Speed Figure of 99, 10 points higher than in his first race. Todd Pletcher holds the record for the most Florida Derby victories, with eight wins, and is seeking a ninth with this lightly raced colt. This is the first time the horse will race without Lasix. Although making a significant class jump from a maiden win to a Grade 1 stakes race can be challenging, historical trends favor recent winners.


#5 - Indecisiveness (30/1), trained by Ruben Sierra & ridden by Jorge Ruiz


Indecisiveness encounters significant challenges in this Grade 1 test. Last month, he finished third in an Allowance race at Gulfstream. Having won only one out of four starts, with poor speed and class figures, it would be surprising to see him finish in the top three. Indecisiveness would need to improve his Equibase Speed Figure by 20 to 25 points to be considered a legitimate win candidate. His Sire and Dam have produced zero wins from 45 starts. Adjusted True Odds 90/1. Seek alternatives.


#6 - Jimmy's Dailys (12/1), trained by Brian Lynch & ridden by Joel Rosario


After breaking his maiden at 7 furlongs with a 93 Equibase Speed Figure two starts back, Jimmy's Dailys finished second in an Optional Claiming race at 1 mile in his most recent start at Gulfstream on February 27. He will now race without Lasix, and his first two career races were uninspiring when racing without the bleeding medication. Joel Rosario takes over for Irad Ortiz Jr., who has chosen to ride Disrupter. Rosario wins 20% of the time and finishes in the money 48% of all dirt routes. He is eligible to improve off his last race, considering he was stretching out an extra 1/4 mile in his first try around two turns. It's an intriguing horse to use underneath.


#7 - Enterdadragon (30/1), trained by Jose D'Angelo & ridden by Dylan Davis


This three-year-old gelding by Outwork finished as the runner-up in the Colonel Liam Stakes (listed) on turf earlier this month. Enterdadragon is the most experienced horse in the field, making his tenth lifetime start, although nine of those have been on turf. He finished fifth in his only career start on dirt last September in the Aventura Stakes (listed. This is an aggressive spot for a return to the main track, and he would need to take a major step forward to factor in the outcome. While his pedigree suggests some dirt aptitude, his speed and class figures are below par for this level. One of the three horses in the field that will run two routes in 28 days. The second route race in 28 days is an easy choice to avoid.


#8 - Madaket Road (7/2), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by Mike Smith


Madaket Road comes into Gulfstream Park with impressive credentials, having finished third in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita and second in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, just 1 1/4 lengths behind Coal Battle at Oaklawn last month. This Quality Road colt consistently performs well against top competitors and possesses the highest Equibase Speed Figure in the field, rated 102. His overall class and speed ratings are the highest among all contenders, and he has shown improved speed figures in his four career races. Blinkers being removed is typically a positive sign for a Baffert-trained 3-year-old, who wins 35% and finishes in the top three 71% of the time. He does not need the lead, but Madaket Road should be prominent early.


#9 - Tappan Street (5/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Luis Saez


Tappan Street is a lightly raced colt who won his debut at this track on December 28, completing 7 furlongs and earning a career-high Equibase Speed Figure of 93. He most recently finished as the runner-up in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on February 1 in his first race going long. Although his speed figures are somewhat lower, he is bred for distance and could challenge competitors like Sovereignty and Madaket Road. His connections have a strong track record in graded stakes races, with a 26% win rate and a 61% rate of finishing in the top three. I am excited to see this horse improve in his second consecutive route race. He was purchased for $1,000,000, and Brad Cox, along with WinStar Farm, has shown great confidence in him.


#10 - Sovereignty (8/5), trained by Bill Mott & ridden by Manny Franco


Consecutive Stakes wins have positioned this well-bred son of Into Mischief as a strong contender for this race and possibly the Kentucky Derby. He has shown the ability to finish fast in his races and likes to come from behind. This Godolphin (Blue Silks) homebred possesses an adequate sustained bid that produced an Equibase Speed Figure of 98 in his Grade 2 Fountain of Youth victory on March 1. Two starts back, Sovereignty won the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes by five lengths over Tiztastic at Churchill Downs last October. His top late-pace speed figure of 107 is the highest in the field, and his proven success at Gulfstream Park bodes well. There is some concern. He’s the third horse running two route races in 28 days. I wouldn’t want to take short odds, especially with his running style.


Jeff’s Selection


#9 Tappan Street (5/1) Win + Place + Show


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