Grade 1 Arkansas Derby | Oaklawn Park | Race 13 | March 29


#1 Brereton’s Baytown (30/1), trained by Paul McEntee & ridden by Marshall Mendez


This well-traveled colt returns to Arkansas after finishing eighth in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at 188/1 odds. He has secured low-level wins at Charles Town and Laurel and will reunite with Charles Town-based jockey Marshall Mendez. His career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 86 is considerably lower than what is usually required to win the Arkansas Derby. This 3-year-old gelding by Upstart is best seen as a potential long-shot option in Trifecta and Superfecta wagers rather than a strong contender for victory. Brereton's Baytown adjusted True Odds are 72/1, the highest in the field. Look for others.


#2 First Division (20/1), trained by Kenny McPeek & ridden by Brian Hernandez


This colt is a son of 2019 Arkansas Derby winner Omaha Beach and makes his stakes debut after a win, a second, and a third in three starts at Oaklawn. His career-high Equibase Speed Figure of 92 show promise but far below other rivals. Finished second to Bestfriend Rocket in their last allowance race on March 2. Has pedigree that suggests ability to handle 1 1/8 miles. First Division will make his first start without Lasix but you’re getting 20/1.Trainer Kenny McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. teamed up with Mystik Dan, who finished third in last year's Arkansas Derby and then won the Kentucky Derby.


#3 Publisher (6/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Flavien Prat


He finished fourth in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes 3 ¾ lengths behind Coal Battle despite getting squeezed during the stretch run. His connections highly regard him ($600,000 purchase), and Prat stays aboard. Publisher is a son of 2015 Arkansas Derby winner and Triple Crown hero American Pharoah but has yet to win in six starts. Still a maiden but has earned $137,000. Publisher adds blinkers for the first time for a trainer not known for his success with first-time blinkers (10% win rate). Considering his experience against tough competition, he is a value bet with the highest class rating of 95. Live long shot.


#4 Bestfriend Rocket (20/1), trained by D. Wayne Lukas & ridden by Nik Juarez


He is a back-to-back Allowance winner at Laurel and Oaklawn since moving to D. Wayne Lukas' barn. Bestfriend Rocket won by a head over First Division in early March at Oaklawn Park. His 92 Equibase Speed Figure was a career-high. His speed and class ratings are much below the rest of this field. Bestfriend Rocket is the son of Curlin, who won the Arkansas Derby in 2007. His second route race in just 27 days seems like a tough spot. I prefer others.


#5 Speed King (15/1), trained by Ron Moquett & ridden by Rafael Bejarano


The Grade 3 Southwest Stakes winner faces Coal Battle for a third time. Speed King finished second to Coal Battle in the Remington Park Springboard Mile last December but placed 10th in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes last month. For Speed King to win this race, he must bounce back and return to a strategy that allows him to run freely. Speed King has the fastest early and middle late-pace speed figures but ranks last in late pace. The distance continues to be a significant obstacle. Jockey Rafael Bejarano has piloted two previous Arkansas Derby winners. I have seen worse horses win with a morning line of 15/1.


#6 Sandman (3/1), trained by Mark Cassee & ridden by Jose Ortiz


Sandman finished second in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes and third in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. This $1.2 million Tapit colt was an Allowance winner over the Oaklawn track in December and has won two of seven overall. Sandman has yet to win a grade stakes race, but his sire Tapit is known for producing horses that can run all day and get better with age. This will be Sandman's eighth career race in 9 months, which seems problematic in a race of this caliber. Mark Casse trained the 2017 Arkansas Derby winner Classic Empire and changed riders to Jose Ortiz. I hope the public bets this horse down to get better odds on my selection.


#7 Monet's Magic (20/1), trained by Ben Colebrook & ridden by Luan Machado


He finished fifth, 5 1/2 lengths behind Speed King in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at odds of 44-1, opting to skip the Grade 2 Rebel. In December, he won a local allowance race on a wet track after breaking his maiden by a neck at Churchill Downs last November. This 3-year-old colt, sired by Good Magic, was purchased for $145,000. His class and speed figures help explain why he is listed at 20/1 on the morning line.


#8 Coal Battle (7/2), trained by Lonnie Briley & ridden by Juan Vargas


Coal Battle is riding a four-race winning streak, including the Smarty Jones (listed) and the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. He looks to remain perfect at Oaklawn and add to his career earnings of $1,053,880. This three-year-old colt by Coal Front has demonstrated versatility in his running style, winning the Smarty Jones Stakes by setting the pace and taking the Rebel Stakes with a sustained come-from-behind bid. He has already earned 70 Kentucky Derby points, securing a spot in the starting gate, and is coming off a career-best 104 Equibase Speed Figure. Coal Battle is undefeated (5-for-5) on dirt. Despite the concern of a bounce off the new 11-point top, this horse remains a threat, showcasing the second-fastest late-pace speed figure in the field (108).


#9  Cornucopian (7/5), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by John Velazquez


Cornucopian was a smashing debut sprint winner at Oaklawn. Posted the fastest six-furlong maiden win in Oaklawn history (1:09 and change) last month, earning a massive 108 Equibase Speed Figure. There are questions about whether he can stretch to 1 1/8 miles, given his limited experience and the fact that he was unchallenged on the lead in his maiden victory. Five-time Arkansas Derby winner Bob Baffert looks to follow Muth's win last year, and a sixth victory would surpass Todd Pletcher as the race's all-time leader. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aims for his first Arkansas Derby win. I love Johnny V, who rides my horse, Straight No Chaser, and is one of my favorite jockeys to talk with. He's just a class act. That said, I would never bet on this horse at 7/5 on the morning line, especially since it's uncertain how he will perform going longer without Lasix in his second career race. Huge underlay and True Odds has this horse at 3/1.


Jeff’s Selections


#8 Coal Battle to Win + Place + Show


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