Free Sports Game Preview and Prediction: Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors
Friday, February 21, 2025 7:30 PM
Play: Point Spread: +3.0/-110 Toronto Raptors
We are north of the border on Friday night for the Miami Heat versus Toronto Raptors battle. The Miami Heat (25-28 SU, 21-31-1 ATS) stumbled into the All-Star break, losing four consecutive games and dropping five of their last six. Currently in ninth place in the Eastern Conference, they maintain a 5.5-game lead over the 11th place team. In their last game, a 118 to 113 loss to Dallas. The Toronto Raptors (17-38 SU, 32-22-1 ATS) also faced difficulties leading into the All-Star break, losing five of their last six games. They sit in 13th place in the Eastern Conference, two games ahead of Charlotte. Their most recent game, a 131 to 108 loss to Cleveland. Miami averages 109.8 points per game, ranking 24th in the NBA. They shoot 45.4% from the field and 36% from three-point range, averaging 14 threes and 16.8 free throws per game. The Heat grab 44.1 rebounds per game but only 9.7 on the offensive end. Toronto's offense is slightly better, averaging 110.6 points per game, ranking 20th in the NBA. They shoot 46.6% from the field and 34.8% from long distance, connecting on 11.4 threes and 15.7 free throws per game. The Raptors excel in offensive rebounding, ranking ninth in the league with 11.6 offensive boards per game. Miami allows 110.7 points per game, with opponents shooting 46.2% from the field and 35.7% from three-point range. The Heat's defense forces 12.7 turnovers per game, leading to a 1.92 assist-to-turnover ratio. Toronto's defense, on the other hand, has been less effective, allowing 116.5 points per game, ranking 25th in the NBA. Opponents shoot 46.9% from the field and 35.7% from three-point range against them. The Raptors force 15 turnovers per game, resulting in a 1.85 assist-to-turnover ratio. This game marks the fourth and final meeting between the Heat and Raptors this season. Miami leads the series 2-1 SU, but Toronto has been more successful against the spread, going 2-1 ATS. The Raptors' offense has outperformed Miami's in the previous matchups, with RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes both averaging over 23 points per game against the Heat. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 2.01 points in favor of the Raptors. The MM projects a point differential of -5.02 versus the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 4.89 with a transitional average of 43.86 and a projected conversion rate range of 44.6 to 46.5. The SIM Matrix has the Toronto Raptors with a 67.88 percent advantage versus the spread in this contest. Despite the struggles of both teams, the Raptors have shown better performance against the spread, particularly at home with a 17-11-1 ATS record. Additionally, the Raptors have been 7-3 ATS in their last ten games versus the Heat. Play ON NBA home teams after having lost at least four of their last six games, playing with three or more days rest, 65-28 ATS (70%). Given Toronto's offensive edge and Miami's recent form, we expect the Raptors to surprise the Heat and get the SU victory north of the border on Friday night. 3* TORONTO RAPTORS +3