The Hall of Fame Game marks the start of the NFL preseason and the end of the annual Hall of Fame enshrinement festivities. On Thursday, August 1st, at 8 p.m. ET, the Chicago Bears will play against the Houston Texans. The Bears will be the home team and use the south sideline bench, while the Texans will be the visitors and use the north sideline bench. This will be the Bears' 7th appearance in the Hall of Fame Game, with their last appearance being in 2018 against the Baltimore Ravens. This will be the 2nd appearance for the Texans, with their only previous appearance coming in 2002 before their inaugural season.


Some may advise against betting on NFL preseason games, but this is a misconception. Predicting the outcome of preseason games can be easier than regular-season matchups because you can often anticipate each team's specific game plan. However, winning is never guaranteed, and bettors should look for potential advantages. Predicting preseason games was easier when they played four games instead of three. Betting on NFL preseason games can be a great way to build your bankroll for the upcoming regular season. To help you get started, I've compiled my list of vital statistics, systems, angles, and teams to consider when betting on the NFL preseason in 2024.


  1) Depth 


Remember that during the preseason, the starting and skill position players on specific teams remain the same as during the regular season. Teams with depth at the skill positions have an advantage over clubs that heavily rely on a few star players who may only play for a short time. For example, the Cleveland Browns exemplify this situation. Players like Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Tyler Huntley, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson have started in the regular season and are likely to succeed against third and fourth-string defenses. Huntley and Thompson-Robinson, in particular, are dual threats and will be a formidable duo late in games.


The Los Angeles Rams have made significant changes with the arrival of a new offensive coordinator, Mike Lafleur, and a new defensive coordinator, Chris Shula. Head coach Sean McVay has a reputation for not emphasizing preseason games, with a record of 7-14, including 0-3 last season. They have an inexperienced quarterback rotation after Matthew Stafford, with Stetson Bennett and Dresser Winn listed at No. 2 and 3, respectively. McVay uses preseason games to evaluate players and prepare for the regular season rather than focusing on winning.


When placing bets on NFL preseason games, it's essential to consider the team's quarterback situation and level of continuity. The last eight minutes of a game can often determine the outcome of a bet, so it's wise to pick teams with a strong quarterback lineup or a track record of success in the league. These teams will have an advantage over opponents with weaker third or fourth-string defenses in the game's final moments.


  2) Experience 


Assessing a team's success based on its players' experience can be helpful. However, having older players may not always be advantageous, as many may not perform at their best during preseason games. Some experienced players, especially those in specific positions, may not give their utmost effort during preseason games because they consider them "meaningless" and already have secure positions, which makes them less motivated to showcase their talent.


Experience is crucial for predicting NFL Preseason outcomes when evaluating coaches and systems. Organizations with minimal changes have a clear advantage over those undergoing new leadership. For instance, the Houston Texans are in their second year, with Bobby Slowik leading the offense and Matt Burke managing the defense. They also have a strong group of quarterbacks, including C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills, Case Keenum, and Tim Boyle, who should be a massive advantage in the latter stages of preseason games.

On the other hand, teams like the Seattle Seahawks, undergoing significant changes, including the appointment of a new head coach (see below), a new offensive coordinator (Ryan Grubb), and a new defensive coordinator (Aden Durde), may require additional time to adapt. All three of them will be making their NFL coaching debut. Therefore, paying attention to teams with familiarity and continuity and identifying those less comfortable with their new system can give you an edge in the preseason. It cannot be emphasized enough! 


3) First-Year Head Coaches with new team (Full Season)


This season, eight teams have new head coaches. Although Antonio Pierce is not a newcomer, this will be his first time starting the season as the head coach. New head coaches in their first year can face challenges, but they tend to perform well in their first home game in August, especially after a defeat on the road. Over the past seven years, they have had a 31-23 ATS (against the spread) record in their first home game. Rookie head coaches are pressured to excel and make a positive impression on the owner, general manager, players, and fans to prove they are the right person for the job. Winning early in the preseason is vital, but it's also important to be selective and not unquestioningly support all eight teams in their first home game.


Jim Harbaugh  (LA Chargers)

Antonio Pierce (Las Vegas Raiders)

Brian Callahan  (Tennessee Titans)

Jerod Mayo  (New England Patriots)

Raheem Morris (Atlanta Falcons)

Dave Canales (Carolina Panthers)

Mike Macdonald (Seattle Seahawks)

Dan Quinn (Washington Commanders)



4) Competition/Philosophy


Understanding head coaches' backgrounds and philosophies can give you a significant advantage in August. John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens is one coach who treats the preseason as if it were the regular season. His impressive preseason record of 44-14 could have helped you make a small fortune. However, he had his worst record last season, going just 1-2 after an impressive streak of 23 consecutive wins from 2016 to 2022. On the flip side, Kevin O'Connell of the Minnesota Vikings takes a different approach. He values the preseason less, choosing to use August to scout his rookies, non-roster invites, and undrafted free agents while making sure his starters and key backups remain fresh. This approach led to the Vikings going 0-3 last year under his leadership, resulting in a preseason record of 0-6 after two seasons as the Vikings' head coach.

Remember to keep an eye on the Pittsburgh Steelers this August. Mike Tomlin has always prioritized winning in the preseason. This is evident from his impressive 17-4 record over the last six seasons and a career 40-24 record in all preseason games. It's important to note that these records are straight-up and not against the spread (ATS). This is because most preseason spreads are close to three points, meaning the winner usually covers, especially since the preseason was reduced to three games.


5) Motivation


If you've been following the NFL for a while, you probably know that not all head coaches focus on winning during the NFL Preseason. Each coach has their approach. The examples I provided are still relevant for the upcoming preseason. Some coaches value the second game, while others prioritize the first or third matchups. Some coaches use the preseason to try different lineups and evaluate their younger players. Unlike regular season football, most coaches are open about their game plan during the preseason. It's helpful to do some research on local beat writers for insights, but getting this information has become more complicated in recent years as preseason betting lines have become sharper, with odds-makers catching on. You seldom will see any preseason games with a spread of more than 4 points these days.

 
6) Scheduling


During the NFL preseason, teams and players typically have a more relaxed schedule, but there are some important things to consider. If a team participated in the Hall of Fame Game, they might not perform as well in their next game, especially if their key players are injured. Keep an eye on the Bears and Texans after the Hall of Fame Game. Also, be cautious of West Coast teams that must travel to play in high humidity on the East Coast, as these teams often struggle. This strategy has been booming recently due to stricter OTA (organized team activities) regulations.


Jeff's NFL Preseason system to consider in 2024


If you're trying to devise a winning strategy for the NFL preseason, consider this: Teams that lose by 28 or more points in their first preseason game tend to perform well in their next game (week two). This is because public reactions can cause betting lines to be exaggerated. Additionally, the defeated team is usually more motivated to perform better and secure a win before the regular season starts. Over the past 12 seasons, NFL teams in this situation have had a success rate of 57.7% against the spread. Choose wisely!


Jeff's #1 NFL Preseason Team to "Play On" in 2024


Cleveland Browns. They have a fantastic four-headed quarterback rotation, and I am comfortable with any of the last three quarterbacks during the second half when most of the games are decided. In 2021, Kevin Stefanski and the Browns started with a 3-0 record before going 1-2 in back-to-back seasons. I anticipate that Deshaun Watson will receive more reps than usual this preseason. Ken Dorsey has taken over the offense and has been very successful in orchestrating the offense during the preseason, given his previous roles as passing game coordinator/QB coach and offensive coordinator. The Buffalo Bills had a perfect 4-0 record in 2019, a 3-0 record in 2021, and a 2-1 record in 2022.



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Good Luck this Football Season!


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